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twitterExperts say economy crushing Las Vegas real estate market
Ulf Buchholz
CityCenter, which begins to open in December, will employ about 12,000 people.
Fri, Oct 30, 2009 (3 a.m.)
Sun Archives
- Vegas foreclosure filings up nearly 9 percent in quarter (10-28-2009)
- S&P: Rate of home price decline eases in Las Vegas (10-27-2009)
- Percentage of valley residences in foreclosure (10-27-2009)
- Where is housing market headed? Nowhere, Realtor says (10-23-2009)
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The sagging economy will weigh on the Las Vegas real estate market and boost foreclosures on residential and commercial properties, according to a panel of local business executives.
The group, composed of a lender, a bankruptcy attorney and a consultant, said the Las Vegas recovery will lag not only the nation but competing markets such as Phoenix.
Michael Shustek, CEO of Vestin Group, a real estate lender and asset manager, said many residential foreclosures have been limited to low-end homes, but a wave of foreclosures at the higher end of the market is coming.
Those homeowners are having difficulty getting refinanced, and prospective buyers are limited in getting higher-limit loans, he said.
“You are going to have a lot of large homes hit the foreclosure market,” said Shustek, who participated in the CEO-CFO Group’s Nevada Economic Summit on Oct. 23 at McCormick & Schmick’s. “The people who owned the big home probably owned the dry cleaners. And what happens is people lose their jobs, and they don’t need as much dry cleaning. It’s a food chain that goes all the way to the very top.”
The key to predicting the real estate market is what’s happening in the economy and in gaming and construction — two industries that were hit hard, said Gregory Garman, an attorney with the law firm Gordon Silver. Las Vegas isn’t Detroit, but it’s in a tough spot when it comes to absorbing real estate, he said.
“We have high unemployment and two industries that are not anywhere close to the verge of recovery and a stagnant if not shrinking population base,” Garman said. “When you look at those things weighing against us, it is going to (take awhile) until some of this (housing) inventory gets absorbed.”
The poor economy and number of used homes on the market will weigh on new-home sales. The large gap in prices between existing homes and new homes makes it even tougher, panelists said.
Loans for condominiums are difficult to obtain, Shustek said. In some cases lenders are requiring buyers put down 30 percent to 40 percent.
“Look at how many condo towers you are seeing empty,” Shustek said. “I did the lending on Towers 1 and 2 at Panorama. We sold out. Tower 3 has 15 closed units in that whole tower. It is frightening out there.”
Wells said that homebuilders can’t compete with existing homes selling for $70 a square foot and that the lack of job growth will hinder that recovery going forward.
The experts predicted that even the addition of 12,000 jobs at CityCenter, slated to open in December, by itself won’t fuel enough additional economic growth or create enough jobs to offset the tens of thousands of jobs Southern Nevada has recently lost.
“We have 180,000 unemployed in the state,” said William Wells, managing director of RSM McGladrey, a business consulting and accounting firm. “That is the part I am concerned about. Where is (job growth) going to be to put more rooftops out there and fill some of these homes.”
Wells predicts the housing market will suffer through what he calls the “W” effect with prices going up, down and back up again. The concern is what happens with the Federal Reserve and need to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control. That will keep a lot of buyers from the market, he said.
“I think the other thing we have to put in perspective is when is the residential market back. How do you define ‘back’?” Wells said. “Back to what, because it is not going to achieve the unreachable numbers we had in 2003 to 2006. I think people are coming to the realization that there is a new baseline. That was something that was unsustainable, and going forward you will have to manage your life a little differently.”
Concern about commercial RE
Like the residential market, Shustek said he is just as concerned about commercial real estate with high vacancy rates. That problem has yet to hit, but it is coming and new projects are grinding to a halt, he said.
“You are going to see it slowing down here until we build industry or create jobs,” Shustek said.
Wells said commercial real estate lags residential, but it could have more of an effect on Las Vegas in the long term. It could be two to four years before the commercial market turns around, he said.
Garman said it has mostly been land that has been foreclosed on by lenders, but suggested that will change soon. Many highly leveraged property owners will simply give buildings back to lenders, he said.
“It doesn’t look rosy,” Garman said. “Unfortunately, it has really yet to start. This is the wave that faces us.”
The economic woes won’t help the construction industry rebound.
Garman, who represents clients with mechanic’s liens against the foundering Fontainebleau, said he doesn’t expect anything “built for a substantial period of time … I am not sure the economic model justifies the type of dollars at which the current product is going up.”
Some of the panelists suggested Las Vegas’ jobless rate will hit 15 percent from its current level of 13.9 percent. Companies are running with fewer workers, and a lot of those jobs are gone and never coming back, Wells said.
Las Vegas will be one of the last cities in the country to rebound, even after Phoenix, the panelists said. Garman said Phoenix is helped because its economy is more diversified.
Wells said his firm has clients that develop in Las Vegas and Phoenix, and suggested the commercial real estate market may be in worse shape in Phoenix, which was more overbuilt than Las Vegas’. Southern Nevada, however, has been harder hit in the housing market, he said.
“We have to create jobs and be more diversified,” Shustek said on what Las Vegas can learn from the recession. “We depend on construction and gaming, and the only way to make this city and state thrive is to be diversified.”
Wells said the state needs to broaden its tax base to deal with a $2.5 billion budget deficit. The lesson to be learned in Las Vegas is the level that it enjoyed from 2003 to 2006 was unsustainable. People were overleveraged and thought the bubble would never burst, and now they must get used to what the term “normal” means, he said.
“I think people are starting to realize that those days were nice, but they aren’t here anymore,” he said. “There is always a little bit of greed factor for everything. We are paying a price for that right now.”
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"The sagging economy will weigh on the Las Vegas real estate market and boost foreclosures on residential and commercial properties, according to a panel of local business executives."
really thats an intelligent assumption made about 3 years too late...
hahahaha
what kind of business people are these? where have they been? the moon? mars? pluto maybe?
We must thank the real estate agents for blowing the prices up on homes for sale during the last bubble. It's only human nature for a person who is watching prices of homes skyrocketing upwards to want to buy one thinking this upward trend would continue, and the real estate agents just said nothing as they made their profits. How many agents have a home being forclosed on now? Probably not enough of them.
Fellow Idiots - the above is old and rotten news as most builders knew what was coming and their agents simply lied to the public, the appraisers especially and the lenders. Many should be jailed for fraud. Folks are leaving Las Vegas more so than what is being reported. They cannot feed the kids or themselves with the unemployement checks, too little and running out. The retired who get a SS check are living on one dollar burgers at McD's or B.King. Look at two of the towers in CityCenter and see how they are leaning over sideways. Who in the world would buy a closetwithabathroom in one of those buildings for 790,000K and a view of planes landing at the airport? The market will come back (what is back as stated above) but look at a minimum of ten years and probably fifteen. The Republican Party has to be thanked for all this ... no regulation from SEC or FAA and no watchdog on Wall St and Greenspan now admits to the huge mistakes of CriminalBush, and the astounding budgets of eight years of CriminalBush, Rove, Cheney, and no regs on discount coupon swaps (did you get that term at all? - and here we thought Vegas was the place to gamble) and his tools of war and economic earthquakes that have ruined this country not to mention the tax cuts for the rich and the illegal war in the wrong place (country, its Iraq folks, and most 20 yr. olds have no idea what Iraq is even, wow) that so far is more than $700 BILLION (has anyone cared about the troops coming back dead in caskets that the politicians do not want us to see?). A big thank you to each and every Republican for all this. Its their fault period. Now, one piece of business is to rid the house of Rangle, a dem who does not report his taxable income. Thanks Ralph Nader, a man who cares and is NOT an idiot. Oh, by the way folks, don't write letters to your representatives or senators and don't vote, don't send emails or NOTHIN'. Just sit on your idiotic arrssess and complain, smoke your cancer sticks and sip hot, flat beer. You deserve what you get, for the most part, with the exception of CriminalBush. No man deserved that AWOL hippoidiot. By all means remain idiots. Dones anyone think that 10,000 letters to sumbag Ensigh's office might tell him to quit? Of course not, it won't happen as addressed at my beginning. Thank You.
Fremmasmind..your kidding us right? Real estate agents are to blame for blowing up the prices on homes for sale? Where in the book does it say real estate agents should inform sellers that they should sell a property for less than it's current market value?
Also, they make commissions, not profits. The majority earn commissions through hard work. There are plenty real estate agents hurting right now and surely many foreclosures amongst them...probably more than enough for you.
Inevitably - prices will rebound. Savvy investors are picking up bargains now!
Who in the Helll are these "EXPERTS" & SAYS WHO?
I've been saying the same exact thing, so I'm an EXPERT now!
I live in fla., 3 years ago at the boom I was going to sell my house and move to Las Vegas.I called a realtor in Las Vegas and he gave me prices on the homes.I told him the homes are to much money.Why would I sell my home on the river for a smaller home in a dust bowl,he laugh. After the boom he calls back and said The market of homes is open and at lot better prices make a offer.
I think I will keep my home in Fla. and visit Las Vegas.
"The experts predicted that even the addition of 12,000 jobs at CityCenter, slated to open in December, by itself won't fuel enough additional economic growth or create enough jobs..."
Anyone care to speculate how long until City Center starts laying off those workers?
davidwayneosedach -- you're selling what?
Is this article 3 years old? Everyone has known this for years......
WTF?
Comment removed by staff.
I wonder about the investors who bought homes at what they though were dirt cheap prices, and whether they were able to rent their homes at a rate that gives them a decent return on their investment? If they haven't rented it out by now, its unlikely they will be able to unless they lower the rental rate, and there goes their return on their investment.
God, that City Center is a monstrosity. The architect must have been a blind man.
listen all politicans have their hands dirty, ceo's run this country, not politicans. a company is not a person, yet they are treated more so, thanks to supreme court decision in the 1800's. current court ready to make it worse in upcoming decision. we're doomed untill the next revolution comes along. parties only know how to make us hate one another over stupid issues while they steal us blind and send our jobs overseas.
Just gotta comment on this one:
Relaxmax:
You should take a peek at WHO, in the industry you are trying so hard to protect, is IN elected government, donated TO elected government, and who tried to steer elected government for it own succinct benefit.
Nearly every last one of your "hardworking" agents went along with, hook line and sinker, the sham loans, the auction house prices, and at every turn tried to slide by nearly every government loan regulation all for a nice fat juicy
SALES COMMISSION CHECK.
This is what sales people do in this industry, sell for a commission. It's a sales industry very similar to used car sales, only with a background check, a broker sign-off, (a must for brokers is a touch of college) and the requirement to sit through one Real Estate class for a few weeks and pass a 1-2 hour test after that. And, poof!, you get a license.
Sum total of the requirements to be an agent. Then start selling and rake in the dough from the suckers who got taken from these Las Vegas house auction-rate prices.
Try this one on for size:
POINT OUT SOMEONE IN REAL ESTATE MAKING A COMMISSION CHECK WHO TURNED IN A SHAM LOAN PROCESSOR TO THE AUTHORITIES.
(Keep lookin'....I'm not holding my breath...)
News flash - Experts say that tomorrow will be another day. It probably won't rain unless it does, and the temperature will vary between 0 and 200 degrees fahrenheit.
Fellow Idiots: HAHAHA fossimmons you are a funny guy hahaha Lets just say this , the entire real estate industry is going to have to reinvent itself over the next five years. Considerable downsizing of both the market and industry must take place. What I'm saying here is that we are over populated, and that has to downsize as well...
The experts predicted that even the addition of 12,000 jobs at CityCenter,
In ADDITION????? Who are they kidding here - the laid off and unemployed "local" experienced casino worker who did NOT get hired in favor of a less experienced out of towner??? That "12,000" figure is so fake. But it looks good to all of those living elsewhere who think Vegas has no problems and it is still a place where the streets are paved with gold.
Sales agents were merely cogs in the wheel. They are trained to sell homes and direct buyers.sellers through the process of a home sale. But they aren't trained economists and are not psychologists that can discern a bubble. There were many in the banks and on wall street who were better trained to appraise real estate value and even they didn't get it right. Personally, I blame the loan officers who did not verify income of home buyers and I blame wall street for creating loans in such a way that homebuyers could afford the mortgages for a few years.
"News flash - Experts say that tomorrow will be another day. It probably won't rain unless it does, and the temperature will vary between 0 and 200 degrees fahrenheit."
LOL, great post robert_lv. "The sagging economy will weigh on the Las Vegas real estate market." Well, stop the presses!
Why am I not surprised that one of the 3 experts is a consultant? That's what they do. State the obvious after the fact, without offering a single concrete solution.
Diversify? Well, duhh. But how? Diversify into what? Where is the capital coming from? What is the competition in that area or areas? Do we have the technologically sophisticated workforce to support the new industries? If not, can we realisitically attract it? How? Do we have the infrastructure? If not, do we have the resources to build it? What are the risks associated with building the new industries? How can we mitigate those risks? Give us a real SWOT (strength, weakness, opportunities and threats) analysis. Give us a real PESTLE (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental) analysis.
What is our expected return on investment? What is the lead time to see a positive return on investment and can the industry survive to that point?
But those kinds of questions require real research, analysis, knowledge and undertanding. That's too much like work.
As an old mentor of mine used to say, "A consultant is somebody who comes in after the battle has been lost and bayonets the wounded."
We must thank the real estate agents for blowing the prices up on homes for sale during the last bubble.
I don't think the real estate agents should take the blame for the 2004-2006 boom - blame the builders on this one. They ALL wanted to get rich quick. Doesn't anyone remember how you had to first get an email from the builder and THEN you can go look at the models? I remember within weeks, a house would go up by minimum $50,000!!! We were interested in a new Centex deveopment; I stopped there one day to look at the models and was totally ignored until some snippy bouncy and perky young sales person (who I'm sure is no longer working in the business) asked if I had gotten an email and what is my "number". I looked at her and asked what she was talking about - she never even answered!! What ticked me off was she had NO idea if I had a half a mil in my checking account and was ready to plunk down the overinflated price right then and there (BTW - I had a business function to go to that weekend and I was dressed in business clothes). So the real estate agents are not totally to blame. Why shouldn't they get a piece of the pie just as the builders (and crooked city council people whose palms were being greaed by those same builders) were getting?
And, like someone said, a lot of people, including those "ruined it all" investors, bought thinking the prices would continue to go up and stay that way. You didn't have to be an "expert" to see what was going to eventually happen. Hell, we're ALL experts on here as far as I 'm concerned - we each have something to contribute and the so called experts shoudl listen to those affected by it the most.
They say it's a good time to buy but that said that a year ago too................
Ironic that the "experts" have been news worthy (or their associates) for unethical, if not illegal (greed driven) behavior relative to the profession the are "experts".
formervegas76
You are spot on- politicians do not run this country, CEOs do. Clinton, Bush, Obama- I don't care what party you affiliate with, your position is purchased and your behavior is dictated by those who control the cash.
Average American is too stupid to understand this, so back to flipping your burgers for 5$ an hour. Oh wait, its Immigrant Man flipping the burgers and Average American is at home watching Judge Judy and stuffing his freeloading 500 pound face with cheetos courtesy of food stamps. Can we expect Average American to change our course through "voting"? Hahaha! The corporate money will probably be spent convincing him to vote for the candidate promising free nurses to come by, wipe his rear and give him his gallon of insulin. (Campaign money provided by makers of insulin and new automated rear wiping device.)
Yup its America's new reality. A nation is only as great as its citizens. Land of the free? Home of the brave? Maybe the lazy, the obese, and the stupid. Youre on crack if you think things will ever return to how they were before. This is the fall of an empire we are witnessing, not just a "great recession". Get off the couch if your still intelligent enough to realize whats going on, and get pissed.
ghettosuprstar.... Great post!!! All is so true, the immigrants are working hard and middle America is busy trying to get on Jerry Springer!
For all those who think City Center is ugly, remember this: the citizens of Paris thought the Eiffel Tower was a grotesque jumble of iron during its inception. It took them years to finally appreciate it. And now anyone who wanted it torn down would be considered a fool.
the mentality of the "real estate agents are to blame" really shows how uneducated and stupid people can be.
that line of thinking is like blaming the bartender at the club for price of your drink.
umm...no.
the price of your drink is $10.00 because a thousand other people that night paid $10.00 for their drinks.
YOU have a choice to pay $10.00 for the drink or NOT buy the drink.
YOU have a choice to pay $300,000 for a 1300 sq. ft. stucco box or NOT to buy the house.
we're real estate agents...AGENTS...that word is very important. we are working as an agent of the seller of that home. it is our duty to get as much for that home as possible. if you don't like that, then don't work with a real estate agent.
also, it's really disgusting how much free advertising city crater is getting off their "will employ 12,000 people" schtick. if the r-d and sun actually made them BUY their ads, you could feed every person in vegas for a month from that revenue.
I LOVE THE TITLE OF THIS ARTICLE...It wants me to say "YA THINK?" (Like we don't know it already)
I just have to re-post this from 10/12 because it is genuinely relevant to the sorry state (no pun) that we are in. I apologize if it's a re-post, but (as famously said in the movies), "It hits the nail right between the eyes."
--
Here's what you are missing:
Every single one of these "developers, etc." was, in some form or fashion, tied in with nearly EVERY ONE, FROM TOP TO BOTTOM, IN GOVERNMENT that was supposed to "stop" them from doing this.
I will NEVER, and I mean NEVER forget the interview with Alan Greespan, (aka "FED GURU" or even "SAINT" in some circles), that he gave after this financial ruinous meltdown to a network TV news reporter. He said, and I quote, "...you expected ME (empahasis added) to stop this...?"
I dropped my iced tea to the floor.
I knew, from that point forward, that the fix was in. And it was in HARD.
From Mr. "Guru" Greenspan, and all the way down the government's financial chain of command, we have been HAD.
And their "PALS", people who gave them "CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS", made BIG MONEY, -OR- they took it upon themselves to get elected to PUBLIC OFFICE, (a position of TRUST), and kept their pals deep in the dough.
READ EVERY SINGLE SOLITARY CAMPAIGN FINANCE REPORT (DONATIONS), AND EVERY FILED FINANCIAL REPORT (what they DID for a living), FOR EVERY ELECTED OFFICE HOLDER, AND YOU WILL FIND OUT, *EXACTLY* HOW THEY GOT WHERE THEY ARE (OR WERE).
Developers, Builders, Mortgage Loan Brokers, Real Estate Sales People, Banking Interests, Finanacial Concerns, Appraisal People, WATER PERMIT people, and all of the other COMMISSIONED AND FEE ORIENTED TYPES associated with this activity, were either IN government, or "DONATING" to government, BIG TIME.
And WE are the ones left holding the Real Estate (trash) bag.
Just WHO do you think is going to pay for this mess? (monetarily)
YOU ARE. WATCH. WITHIN A YEAR THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF CLEAN UP TAX, that YOU gotta pay. (Remember the Environmental Toxic Waste Superfund?)
AND these SAME people (that did this garbage) are gonna try and run again. And I can almost guarantee they won't EVER mention a THING about it in ANY WAY that makes *THEM* LOOK BAD.
--
(And just who's going to borrow money now if they're unemployed? Wait, the LIAR-LOAN industry will save the day so that we can do this all over again.)
Am I the only one who thinks those twin towers look crooked? WTF?
uhhhhh duh! this article is about 2 and a half years late. They put together a panal of "experts" to tell us all what we already know and have known for the last year or so,
Sergio,
Those towers are the "VEER" towers, and by design, they are supposed to veer outwards in opposite directions. This type of design has been attempted only a few other times in the world, and had to be abandoned each time -the engineering issues kept proving to difficult to master. For what it's worth, this completion of the Veer Towers will be the first and only successful example of this design in the entire world. Unless you count the Leaning Tower of Pisa -and that's only one tower anyway. ;-)
looks like a lego building made by a 5 year child...
On 10-20-09 Foreclosure.com reported 23,677 pre-foreclosures and 15,687 foreclosures in the Valley. Today it reported 24,278 pre-foreclosures and 15,962 foreclosures. That's a net increase of 601 pre-forclosures and 275 foreclosures in the last 10 days.
It's always a good time to buy according to your realtor (usually a beautician who can't find a job).
tvegas
LOLOL Beauticians are more likely to keep working as opposed to realtors!! (Sorry, Stevem). Salons and spas are basically recession-proof because women will always want their hair done (and men, too), have massages, pedicures, manicures, etc. regardless how broke they are. They FIND the money to do these things!
This type of design has been attempted only a few other times in the world, and had to be abandoned each time -the engineering issues kept proving to difficult to master. example of this design in the entire world.
Mmmm....all the more reason not to stay very long in any of those buildings. Brings to mind the errors in the WTC Twin Towers.
The whole thing is an overbuilt monstrosity.
Bring back the low rise western style resorts of the fifties.
Fifteen bucks a night, that's the ticket.
I do miss the old days.
They were the best.
The VEER Towers are kinda cool, as the rear tower gets sort of a half of a south strip view that it wouldn't ordinarily have if it were directly behind the front strip facing tower. It is pretty weird though. I think I liked the boardwalk better with the fake roller coaster and that big scary smiling clown.. ahh the good recent old days..
Blah blah blah ... You are all experts, you are all fools, wasting time boxing with shadows. Buy low, sell high, end of story. Acknowledge, move on!
Rory Reid signed off on most of this. This must qualify him for higher office?
Las Vegas is suffering from an oversupply of everything and an extreme shortage of common sense.
Thanks for the explanation on the Veer towers, must have missed the memo on that one.
It's sad to think that the planners of the City Center didn't have the vision to realize that the housing bubble would burst and the ramifications that would have on our city, country, world. Makes me think of Proverbs 29:18: "Where there is no vision, the people perish."
So, now the planners of CityCenter should care about predicting a supposed "housing bubble" and also its "bursting"? Wha-huh?
In ten years, we might be looking back at CityCenter the same way we look at the 1989 opening of the Mirage (the one thing that brought Las Vegas out of the doldrums of the 1970s-1980s and spurred a wave of redevelopment). Turn-and-burn IS the Las Vegas vision, folks! Duh. Did you just land here, like, ten years ago?
As for the, er, "bubble": Average homeowners leveraged their homes to buy things they otherwise could not afford instead of sitting tight and wondering, "Gee, Las Vegas has a historical appreciation rate of 3-5%. I wonder if this 50% appreciation rate is sustainable? Aw, who cares? Let's go to Cabo!"
Living in Las Vegas is like surfing the North Shore on Oahu: You can ride the wave and enjoy it, or you can die fighting it. Either way, the wave exists whether you want it to or not. I suspect if more people paid attention to that before moving here, we wouldn't have half the problems we have now - nor half the population.
again det_much, your post about your real estate "experience" proves my point.
you said you had "money in the bank and were ready to pay the inflated price"...
again. you had a CHOICE to make there. if you PAID whatever that price was for the home...it wasn't inflated. it was what the market rate was for that home.
saying "realtors pushed up house prices" is so moronic. BUYERS pushed up prices of homes.
if tomorrow there was some huge demand for doughnuts, the price would go up to what the market could bear. is the kid working the cash register at dunkin' donuts to blame for that?
nope.
so why are realtors to blame for housing prices?
it just doesn't make sense. anyone that took a freshman college economics course would never make the statement that the price of something was "inflated" that continued to sell.
if the riviera tried to sell rooms at $430 per night...THAT would be "inflated" because nobody would pay $430 for a room at the riviera, but if one person...just one person paid that $430...it would no longer be "inflated"...it would now be the market rate for that hotel.
fosimmons...
right on, man !
James,
I seen the crash coming and sold my home at an inflated price (2X's what I paid in 2001) about 1 year before things topped out and then then started going south. Why was I sure the bubble would burst and lead to a financial crisis? Duh, that's what bubbles do, burst! I based my expectations on the first depression that was caused by a lending bubble created by the newly established Federal Reserve. They gave farm owners as much credit as they wanted, then suddenly cut it off, the rest was predictable. I seen the same thing happening this time once people started walking away from their homes. Credit would dry up. The people who "tossed up" the mortgages to foreigners 30-40 times and the people who insured those loans would go belly up. The deregulation that Bush passed which allowed the masses to rape the system was a calculated move with had predictable results. Things start to peter out in 2005 and RE started to tank in 2006. The MGM started to "pre sell" condo's in 2005, near the top of the bubble. They broke ground near the top of the bubble. http://www.greatlasvegascondos.com/mgm_c...
I'm asking, where was the vision?
The glut of new hotel rooms will not revitalize Las Vegas, it will cause room prices to go down. This is economic 101, supply and demand.
Even though the gov says the recession is over, our country is turning towards a socialist model which will cripple industry and cause rich people (business owners) to flee for greener pastures. The jobs our criminal politicians are outsourcing to third world countries will not come back. The banks who hoarded all of our tax dollars are not going to loan money now or in the future, too risky due to toxic debt still out there. No credit in a consumer economy = more businesses are going to go belly up, more unemployment. All of this spells disaster for Las Vegas. My friend Steve Wynn tried to warn you folks about our cities eminent demise, but nobody was listening. Let me put this to you in a manner some of you might understand better, you lib's better vote for the Conservatives moving forward or you'll all be out a job! Capish?
Relaxexlax max and steveum, where were you two when the prices of houses were rising quicker than a thermometer in the summer sun. Didn't either one of you read the news articles in the RJ and Sun stating that prices of homes for sale were going up faster than any other time in Las Vegas history? Are both of you in the real estate business or do you both want to argue for no reason.
Greed comes in every job classification. If one industry can inflate prices to increase their profits, sure, go for it. Now that the bubble has burst, you agents better have saved some money, it's going to be quite awhile before we see this again.
The last time the real estate bubble burst was at the end of H.W. Bush's term.This one burst at the end of George Bush's term. Hmmm
stevem is right. Demand caused housing prices to rise not the real estate agents or anyone else. No one put a gun to anyones head forcing them to buy. It is human nature I suppose to want to blame others rather than take accountability for ones own actions. If the market had continues to rise in price you would not hear this many people complaining. Unfortunately it did not...
Comment removed by staff.
GREED caused housing prices to rise
Sergio: Thank you for your lesson on supply and demand economics, trouble is WE ALREADY KNOW THIS STUFF! So if you are going to write a book here, why not tell us something we don't already know about, but try to do it in one short paragraph!!!
wizardofoz : Your stuff is getting repetitive also, give us some new material will ya?
anybody that voted for bush and the republicans
got what they deserved.
anybody that voted for bush his second term truly
deserved to lose everything. i have no sympathy
for them.
war, lies and debt... that's those republicans
for you, folks !
Blame..blame..blame. Lots of blaming but no personal responsibilty. I am waiting to see the homeowner who got screwed with a sore arm that was twisted. First it wasnt the evil repubs that did this. Back in the late 90's Barney Frank and crew demanded that home loans be made to low income and marginal to bad credit. Research it. This was years in the making. No Realtor, Builder or Loan Officer ever MADE anyone buy a house. And who are we going to blame for people who got themselves over extended with credit card? Let me guess, those evil republicans. Stop blaming and except responsibility for your own financial woes. If you dont understand budgeting buy a book on the subject. We Americans are the only ones who dont believe in the American Dream. Like the other poster said, we are too busy sitting on our asses watching Judge Judy and eating cheetos. We want everything handed to us while the evil foreigners take jobs, 2,3 or 4 so they can survive and they scrimp and save and pay with cash not credit cards and they buy a small business and support themselves. Why... Because they believe in what we dont! Take responsibility for yourself and your kids!
Blaming real estate agents, politicians, builders etc are things in the past. We should be blaming the banks and mortgage companies who received billions of stimulus money and kept it to themselves. Our government is too weak to tell them to pass the stimulus money to the homeowners about ready to foreclose. These banks gave huge bonuses to their senior managers and would rather lose big by foreclosing the houses instead of modifying their loans and let the homeownres stay in their homes. A foreclosed home's value is a lot less than the assesed value of the home if they wanted to modify the principal and/or monthly payments.
You all remind me of the South Park episodes when the town folk shout "Rubble rubble rubble!"
I think someone said it right (maybe not in this forum) that plowing or bulldozing the old s***hole down is the way to go.
The immediate jobs created in demolition (fun fun fun!) and the planning jobs to decide what the place will look like in 10 - 20 years (cool cool cool!) is what is being wasted with lack of sound judgement by our idiot leaders... I don't care who you think they are.
Unite the clans!!!
stevem - your analogy would work except for one tiny fact you may have inadvertently overlooked. The kid at Dunkin' Doughnuts isn't paid by taking a cut of the total selling price of the doughnut so why would he care what it costs? So to solve the "problem" or perception of a "problem" for all these types, make these salaried or "piece rate" (set price per transaction) jobs, like has been done to every other worker in America. The huge bonuses going out to the bailed out companies are what? Commissions perhaps?
These high rise condos were conceived and designed when there was only so much privately held land available. The wheels were all in motion with financing, design, land acquisition, permitting, etc., when the BLM started auctioning off thousands of acres to the master planned community developers (i.e. Focus Group (bankrupt)Mountains Edge, Providence, etc.)
Before, the Las Vegas metro area was a certain sized island surrounded by Public lands held in trust by the BLM. Picture what would happen to land price in Hawaii if another chain of islands rose up out of the Pacific. Land values in Hawaii would drop. Supply side economics.
The High Rise Developers got screwed by the BLM, State of Nevada and Clark County. Their budgets all increased as a result of the urban sprawl that took place. Look at all the new Federal, State, County and City infrastructure that was built.
Not that I feel sorry for the High Rise developers (Trump) but they did get screwed. The politicians from the Feds on down got their money up front and around back. We, the taxpaying masses are left holding the bag. Again. (S&L meltdown)
Sergio: you said "Let me put this to you in a manner some of you might understand better, you lib's better vote for the Conservatives moving forward or you'll all be out a job! Capish?"
I have news for you, conservative policies, starting with you hero Ronald Reagan and his supply side BS, started and created this MESS!!!!! 11 trillion dollars of debt ran up in the last 28 years, and 20 of them had a Republican IDIOT as president!!!!
Mr. Prophet,
Why are you addressing me in your comment? Who CARES when MGM started construction?
Supply and demand? Uh, right, yes I get it. Thank you for your lecture. How long have you been studying Las Vegas? Because I've made a lifetime of it, and I've seen how the city turns-and-burns.
Have you calculated the self-regulation that happens when a new property opens and an old one disappears? Have you calculated how many hotel rooms were lost with the Frontier and the Stardust, and how many will be gone when the Excalibur eventually is imploded? Turn-and-burn, baby.
Like I suggested earlier, Las Vegas was probably not meant to sustain 1.5 million permanent residents -- not economically, not ecologically. We have a 100-year historic ratio of 30-to-1 residents-to-annual visitors, so if the visitor count drops (as it has) then the number of residents must drop with it. When it climbs again, residents will increase.
But, hey, what do I know? Nothing. Thanks again for the class. Now, I gotta get out and feed the economy!
umm...how do you think the kid at dunkin' donuts gets paid?
from a little "money fairy"?
no, he DOES get a certain percentage "commission" from each donut that's sold, it's just calculated as an hourly wage.
if he sells enough donuts, his employer ( much like a property seller ) can pay him and keep him employed.
don't think for a second that because someone makes a "base pay" or "hourly wage" that it's not directly related to some kind of percentage of sales on some cfo's excel spreadsheet.
but then, if you don't think that...you're probably stupid, and that's why you think realtors control housing prices.
destructmutt is right that real estate agents should not be paid a commission that is based on the value of the property sold. It really is a silly model that doesn't add value to the transaction. An agent performs the same tasks whether the house costs $1M or $100k, so why should the agent's compensation differ? The current system motivates real estate agents to encourage a higher selling price, whether they realize that they are doing so or not.
When trade unions set pricing for labor, business and government (Reagan) went about busting the unions up. In order to control costs. So if it works for a blue collar guy, why won't it work for a white collar guy?
stevem - most pay is based on TIME not the commodity. The price of commodity is based on the cost of labor and material to produce the commodity.
A commission is a bonus above and beyond the base cost of the commodity so every Penney above cost is profit. If it costs 50 cents to make a donut and my boss allows me to start a bidding war with people who want that donut and I get it up to a buck. Did I not just profit unfairly from my behavior, or is it just the stupid people who bid on the doughnut that are at fault? No culpability on my part for bidding it up?
Who's to say that one or more of the bidders weren't in on it? Then they all split the 50 cents of pure profit. After the mark has left.
I suppose it is all based on your point of view.
If you are a business next to them and you see them making money like that, you would sure want your shot at doing the same thing. If you are the next "sucker" coming in to buy the doughnut then you might not be so thrilled with the gig.
You see, from my perspective, a realtor is a leech added in to insulate the builder from the buyer in order to disallow an ability to bargain directly with the builder. But that is my perspective.
Where is the incentive for a realtor to take an offer for less money to the builder? These are the rules, I didn't make them but I have a fair guess as to who did. Follow the money.
Like some people would say 50 dollars an hour is too much for a plumber, I would say 3 - 6% on a 300,000 home is too much for a real estate office/ broker.
As a business person, if you could save 3% amortized over 30 years on a mortgage, wouldn't that be a pretty good chunk of change? I've never known a businessman to pass up money.
It would be pretty easy to figure out how much TIME a broker spends on any particular deal and assign an hourly value or rate to that which is fair. How about 20 bucks an hour? Not bad, right 20 dollars, that's a lot. Here's a nice crisp 20 dollar bill. But because no one will assign an hourly value, no one knows how much a real estate broker makes per hour. Hey even attorneys give you that information.
Trying to do a realestate deal without a broker is like trying to defend yourself in court. The law allows it but nobody wants to deal with you.
They will not be paying homebuying wages at cc anyway.
James P Reza = greasy windbag troll
Steve Wynn said build it and the people will come. The way he talks about the President calling him everything, but the N word he'll put Vegas died last in recovering. Good job Mr Wynn
In the next quarter I believe you'll see a 30% drop in gaming stock.
The bubble hasn't burst YET !!
WELL BOYS AND GIRLS, HOW IS THAT CHANGE AND HOPE THING WORKING OUT FOR YOU NOW??? HUH????
I have been predicting 16 percent unemployment. And diversification is important but will take a decade to happen. A portion of that will come from the medical field which has begun in the opening of the Lou Ruvo Center.
Mayor Goodman is a visionary pushing for a medical campus.
The problem with Vegas is that it does not have the infrastructure to do anything else.
What needs to happen is press on the Gambling and Travel industries for more growth. Forget construction for growth, that is what got Vegas in trouble.
Senator Reid and others are pushing for environmental industries growth. This is a possible future for Vegas. It will take the next decade, but Vegans need to put all their efforts into creating "Green" exportable industry.
Vegas needs to take a page from Pittsburgh and then look beyond.
My recommendation for the next two years is for everyone to save every dime they can, get a second job, and save save save.
Sell all assets they can now, take a loss, down size, and for the next 24 months ride the bus, eat soup, and re-educate themselves.
Since this all went down two years ago, this is exactly what I have done. I now have a large supply of cash, my monthly nut is now 15% of what it used to be.
I have two jobs, have re-educated myself, and I am getting ready to travel for the next two years around the world.
Now is the time to become mobile, get ride of all your personal belongings, take the financial hit now, file bankruptcy (Screw the banks and lenders that screwed you), go cash, don't borrow a dime, cut up all credit cards, barter for as much as you can, and ssve, save, save.
What ever the experts say you should do, do exactly the opposite!
Newsdawg
There seems to be some misconception regarding what Real Estate Agents really do in a transaction. What we don't do is set prices. Sellers set prices and only the sellers. Real Estate Agents are trained to evaluate properties based on recent sales of similar homes in the neighborhood, usually those sold within the past 30-60 days. We compensate for some differences, i.e., square footage, lot size and so forth, then we recommend a price range to our clients. Padding prices to increase commissions would be unethical and very likely result in some steep fines from the state as well as our Realtor's Association.
If you care to place some blame, consider this. Try looking at lenders, who were lending money to people on nothing but a signature and a lie. No doc loans, statement income loans, interest only loans. All of them potentially dangerous and were the norm during the boom years.
Also consider the builders, many who were routinely increasing prices daily, sometimes by as much as $10,000 per day or phase.
Also consider the investors who were coming in with substantial amounts of cash to make up the difference between the appraised value and the purchase price. If the home doesn't appraise for the agreed to price, the difference is paid in cash, which drives up the value of the homes in the neighborhood.
I understand the people are very angry right now, but look at the facts before pointing fingers.
"The jobless rate is higher than 13.9% and has already exceeded 15%. Your so called experts are not experts at all; they tell you what you want to hear. Instead of enabling these so called experts get out and do you your job."
We're so sick of reading articles that are not factual and based on so called experts who have no clue. What you are failing to report is many people have exhausted their unemployment and are living in homes that banks have yet to provide notice of foreclosure or remove from the premises.
Here is an idea, drive around and look at all the construction jobs, you can count them on 1 hand and now go to the retail outlets and count the staff, what you will find is jobs are being condensed and as for construction goes, there isn't any to speak of, unemployment in the trades is well over 80% if not higher.
We have only our present elected officials to thank, Obama, Reid, County Commissioners and LV Council members have all taken their pay raises and sucked every dollar from us to pay for their welfare blood sucking voting pool. You think its bad now, wait until next year, it's going to be worse.
well, it's a lot harder to sell a $500,000 home instead of a $200,000 home
so...
while we get 3% from either one, the 3% for the $500,000 is more because it takes longer and much more effort to sell.
and how SHOULD we get paid?
should it be a flat fee?
$300?
$3,000?
so, if you're selling your house for $800,000 or $80,000...you should pay the same fee?
so the $800,000 guy pays $3,000 to sell a home AND the $80,000 guy pays $3,000 to sell a home?
THAT'S a better way to do it?
the percent of home sale as commission is the way it's done 99% of the time
again, you anti-realtor people are stupid.
and a house never sells for more than a single penny for more than it's worth.
if someone buys it...it's worth that much.
if you walked into burger king today and a whopper was $19.00 you could turn around and walk out, or you could buy it.
if you buy it...the whopper is now "worth" $19.00.
and yes...the guy working at dunkin' donuts is paid on a per hour basis, but why is it like $7.00 per hour and not $70.00 per hour?
because somewhere, someplace, someone decided that $7.00 was the maximum percentage of revenue that could be allowed to go to that cost.
and NO, if you worked at the donut shop and you WERE paid in commission...and you WERE able to sell donuts for the highest amount people would pay for them...WHY would that be unfair?
you'd be a smart business person. of course YOU would use a "union worker" example to say someone using supply and demand to find a price for their goods would be acting "unfairly".
relax and enjoy the sunshine; if it wasnt for the weather, vegas would REALLY be miserable.
Las Vegas the biggest ghost town.
What a great opportunity to purchase property. It is a buyer's market.There is such a glut of properties out there.While many are complaining of this lemon of an economy there are many such making lemonade.
I don't know what all the fuss is about.
Biden has declared that the recession is over.
You Realtors need to step off your soapbox. The mere fact that you have an organization (Realtor's Association) that you all belong to just re-enforces my point. There are strength in numbers and to say that an accepted practice is the best practice because 99% do it that way is another re-enforcement of my position. For this I say a heartfelt.
Thank You!
Perhaps instead of using the word "harder" substitute the word "fewer". So it is more difficult to make a pile of money. You must complete more transactions to make more money. That is hard! *wipes away sweat* Once again re-enfocing my point.
Thank You!
Stop digging, you are in deep enough.
Unions = Bad
Realtor's Association = Good?
But I do applaud your willingness to at least engage in the discussion. None of the bankers or builders are doing that.
Since we are losing tenants and people in general we should cut the police force by 30%
Everyone who walked away from a mortgage they never should have had in the first place should not EVER qualify for another loan, unless the previous leinholder is paid back for their losses. I kept my little house in an average neighborhood, driving used cars while everyone tried to tell me to "get out" and move up to a "nicer" neighborhood. Those LOSERS are now walking away from the mess they got into, and no doubt will not be held responsible for repayment. When I borrow money, I pay it back. Sometimes having to give something up to do so. Of course, the geniouses who run the government (Federal, State, Local) are all working hard to reward the irresponsible while those of us who lived within our means get NOTHING but higher fees, taxes, etc. Of course, with prices now more reasonable, I might just srart looking at the "nicer" neighborhoods and snap up a deal.
Oh, I like the leaning towers, more creative than all the 3 wing look alikes built on the strip in the last 20 years.
I had to laugh at the headline "Experts say economy crushing Las Vegas real estate market". Are you kidding me? Ask any 12 year old, ask any bum on the street, everybody knows the effect of the economy on the real estate market.
If the experts truly knew anything they would have kept us out of this mess in the beginning.
It was the so called experts that got us in this predicament with their bundled investments, liberal lending policies and algorithms.
Anyone who tries to blame Barney Frank and othe Dems will need to explain how they were able to do this given that the Republicans chaired all of the committees and submittees because they were the majority party from 1992 through 2006. No legislation leaves the comittees without the lead of the chairpersons who happened to be Republicans. Sorry, but Barney Frank had no say in the legislation that passed.
Nevada has the third highest unemployment rate lagging only Puerto Rico and Michigan yet, according to Recovery.gov Nevada nor any of its local companies are even listed in the top ten recipients for "Loans, Grants or Contracts awarded by the Federal Government for 2009?
California on the other hand has received $7,824,582,080.00 in Grant money and a private California company, Solyndra which was founded in 2005 in Freemont California is the recipient of the largest stimulus loan to date per recovery.gov at $535,000,000.00.
I don't know Harry do you smell something fishy around here. How is Pelosi getting all that money for California and you can't even get enough for Nevada to register on the web site http://www.recovery.gov/Pages/home.aspx#....
Florida received a grant worth $1,479,922,294 for Education, Texas received a grant worth $2,177,682,329 for Economic Development and Tourism and Washington DC was able to eek out $1,293,525,000 to upgrade a couple of rail cars.
Just a question, maybe things aren't as bad as we think and there is some grand plan in the works that has not yet been disclosed. Harry, please let us know what you plan is, give us something to hold on to.
Show us something tangible Harry or don't bother spending any more money on your campaign, you might as well put it in the toilet and flush.
I knew someone would say it was Bush's fault.
According to "fosimmons" and "7Pesos" EVERYTHING is Bush's fault.
Maybe we can get a federal grant and study this economic situation a little more...
Some stimulus money would also be nice...
las vegas will be in for a long haul it will be the last city to come out the recession
The number of Bank owned homes available for sale on the Las Vegas MLS has dropped if that makes anybody feel any better.
http://www.lasvegasrealestatehome.com/la...
Number of Homes for sale in general has dropped in Clark County so I am not sure how that would make anyone feel better. Especially considering the fact that Builders can not build at the current market price and if Appraisers continue to get their way we will not see home values increase even though supply is down considerably and demand is up.
We are burdened by a craze of political rules and regulations that has created a catastrophe in the housing market in this state that we have not even begun to see the repercussions of.
Tell me why having approximately 12,000 pending or contingent Single Family Residences and 9,800 Available Single Family Residences is a good thing. This housing market is very unhealthy and until we can work through the 3 to 5 years worth of foreclosures that we have to still work through this housing market will not get better.
Even though the gov says the recession is over, our country is turning towards a socialist model which will cripple industry and cause rich people (business owners) to flee for greener pastures. The jobs our criminal politicians are outsourcing to third world countries will not come back. The banks who hoarded all of our tax dollars are not going to loan money now or in the future, too risky due to toxic debt still out there. No credit in a consumer economy = more businesses are going to go belly up, more unemployment. All of this spells disaster for Las Vegas. My friend Steve Wynn tried to warn you folks about our cities eminent demise, but nobody was listening. Let me put this to you in a manner some of you might understand better, you lib's better vote for the Conservatives moving forward or you'll all be out a job! Capish?
-----------------
Really? I think it is you who needs to get a grip. This whole matter of outsourcing to other countries started long, long before the current administration. And I might note that it was during a TOTALLY REPUBLICAN-DOMINATED government - when Bush, Cheney, and a REPUBLICAN Congress ran the nation - that I purchased my house via an ARM loan. Those were a big part of the current problem. And I did not hear a single conservative during that time ever once say "gosh, what a dangerous idea. We should stop this at once." So, don't try to convince me that it's conservatives who will save the day. Capish?
Actually "teaser" you should look to your freind Mr. Frank and his Liberal Acorn loving cronies who were yelling discrimination at the banks because they actually had guidlines that required a borrower to show a history of paying on time and the ability to pay going forward. Unfortunatly, this left some people unable to qualify for loans and your liberal eqality guru's decided to slap the banks with threats of lawsuits if they did not find a way to loosen lending practices so ALL Americans could buy a home regardless of their finacial past or future ability to pay for it.
Stick that in you cup of Coffee tommorow morning.
"fogcity" you might also want some of the above comment for your morning cup of joe.
the blame game is a lot of fun but ultimately the yahoo who BOUGHT the property at 300k or 400k is the schmuck that started the ball rolling. i dont see anything in vegas worth that much. i wouldnt pay over 200k for anything in vegas NOW. tell the real estate agents to get real and tell their clients to start dropping their asking prices.
" purchased my house via an ARM loan. Those were a big part of the current problem."
Thanks for giving us the 411 that you are a moron.
Is this a great time to buy a SFR in Las Vegas?
Actually a 7 or 10 year ARM is a fantastic loan for the homeowner that can afford to make the full payment. A simple interest loan that re-amortizes every month. The interest savings alone if you pay the fully amortized payment is substantial not to mention the saving from the lower start rate. The loan is actually a great financial tool for someone who understands and can navigate the product.
ARM are terrible to get unless you are only going to stay in the house for less than 5 to 10 years especially in today's market.
Because of the enormous size of the federal deficits, interest rates will start to climb and continue to climb for at least a decade.
I be surprise if we do not exceed the Jimmy Carter years of 15% mortgage rates.
People should be locking into the current low interest rates.
If it is now foolish to buy houses for short-term investment reasons.
The Prophet has decided to weigh in on some of the debate here to end it once and for all with his enlightenment:
1) Are RE getting paid too much? Obama's pay czar will address that issue in due time. Yes, of course make too much money for the duties they perform. In a communist economy such as the one we will soon employ, the street sweeper is just as valuable to the "society" as the brain surgeon. Another possible remedy is to train the "illegals" who learn English to drive people around and teach them to say (in broken English) "isn't this one just a-door-a-ble?" to make .25% commission moving forward. I'm sure most would work for $10 a hour, but that might be too much once the avg home in LV moves down to a more modest $7,500 per home as they go in Detroit.
2) Who caused the RE market to crash? That was a team effort of course with plenty of blame to go around. Does complaining and pointing fingers really accomplish anything though?
3) Will taxes be going up soon? You bet you sweet arse they will! The final nail in the coffin.
4) Will China continue to buy US debt, if so, why would they want to help us, don't they hate us? Of course China does not want to help a capitalist country to thrive. They do what is best for China. I've heard a rumor from someone in our embassy in China that Mrs Clinton made a deal with China to back the US dollars they own (and continue to buy) with cold, hard, US real estate, both public and private, via the eminent domain laws and by allowing Chinese citizens to buy US RE for cash that the Chinese gov could rent out for a positive cash flow then sell at any time once the market turned around. This explains why over 30% of LV RE trx's are from Chinese principals with cash in hand. (Call any RE agent to confirm) This story is not being covered by the media because of the national security implications, and you didn't hear it from me, I'm just a Prophet go hears things from God. (Just kidding of course, ha ha ;)
5) When will LV RE rebound? After LV is destroyed and all building are rubble, it will have to be rebuilt. However, don't count on any construction jobs for the next Las Vegas. Those so called "savages" who lived in tee-pee's on this land before the white man came here did so because a tee-pee can't be destroyed by earth changes such as the ones coming our way. Another heads up.
"the blame game is a lot of fun but ultimately the yahoo who BOUGHT the property at 300k or 400k is the schmuck that started the ball rolling. i dont see anything in vegas worth that much. i wouldnt pay over 200k for anything in vegas NOW."
________________________________
Normally it is easier to do cost per sq ft as opposed to total house cost.
As far a $ per sq foot, the only places you see it exceed $150 is Summerlin and Sun City Anthem. SCA is stable due to its niche as a 55+ and the low foreclosures there. Summerlin because people are still willing to pay for a name.
city center will make lake las vegas look good. I hope I am wrong, but if it fails,the drop will thunder across the valley
Its about time the truth was finally seen in print! Thank you Las Vegas Sun! If I had to endure anymore fake-smiling reporters on tv telling me the housing market was rebounding, I was going to go postal!!!
As I have said in other comments, neighbors here are moving out in droves. Houses are sitting empty with NO for sale signs on them. Just abandoned. Yet, on Boulder Hwy they built another huge apartment muti-plex? What the hell is wrong with the city? Are they so greedy that they will allow anyone to build anything just to get what little bribes they can get? The over building in the city is what has caused this problem. If you can't sell what you've got, why on earth would you build more????
I've had enough. Time to move back to a state where they actually have limits on building, and make companies uphold contracts to finish projects that they have started!
Don't blame the Realtors. The Realtors just presented the homes. No one can actually buy a home until the lenders or underwriters approve the loan. There is your blame! Get smart and educated before you speak!
It's a team effort.
city center = city crater.
it's like adding another lemonade stand on a street where nobody is buying lemonade.
The last Real Estate Agent I knew that simply presented a home wasn't an agent for long.
Comment removed by staff. Contained an advertisement.
I just spent the 30 minutes going over these comments. As entertaining as they were, almost all of them missed the point. You can't have it both ways. Nobody complained when they woke up one morning and your $184,000 1,500 square foot home was now worth $300,000 (2006) Now, your $184,000 house is worth $99,000 (2009). Sorry. You stayed because you wanted it to be worth $400.000 then $500,000 by 2012. You got greedy. Just like the casino owners, just like the builders, and just like everyone else. No, it isn't coming back and Center City isn't the answer. All of Las Vegas' eggs are in one basket and that basket is broke. It needs to be right sized not supersized. I tired of the endless mountains of trash on the strip, the lack of planning and the poor education system for my chidren and I left. (2007) and while I miss parts of Vegas, I'll never go back.